Portfolio Target Timeline
Median path to $5M, $7M, and $10M in today's dollars
Projection results
Retirement Outcomes
Preparing model.
90% Today's Spend at Access Age
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Best Success Rate
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Highest Median Ending Portfolio
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Probability of Funding Retirement
Contours: 50% 80% 90% 95%
Median Ending Portfolio
Successful paths only
90% line
90% Success Spending-Power Frontier
| Retirement Age | Max Annual Spending Power at >=90% Success |
|---|---|
| Run a projection to populate the frontier. | |
Model notes
What This Calculator Does
This calculator estimates how sustainable a retirement plan may be under many different market, inflation, contribution, tax, retirement-age, and spending assumptions.
How it works
For every retirement age and spending-power level in the grid, the model runs thousands of randomized annual paths. Each path applies investment returns, taxable account drag, inflation, variable brokerage contributions, and withdrawals through the configured end age.
How to read the plots
The success map shows the percentage of paths that avoid running out of money before the end age. The target timeline shows how the current savings rate may compound toward $5M, $7M, and $10M in today's dollars before withdrawals begin. Spending levels are shown in today's dollars, so a given row represents the same purchasing power across retirement ages. The terminal wealth plot shows the median ending portfolio value among successful paths only.
Withdrawal model
Spending is treated as after-tax spending power in today's dollars. Before retirement, each path inflates that amount to the retirement start date; after retirement, spending keeps inflating annually. The model withdraws from brokerage first, grossing up for brokerage withdrawal tax, then uses retirement accounts after the configured access age and applies the retirement withdrawal tax rate.
Why it is useful
The goal is not to predict one future. It is to expose tradeoffs: retiring earlier, spending more, saving more, changing market assumptions, or relying more heavily on taxable assets. The frontier table summarizes the highest today-dollar spending power that reaches at least 90% success for each retirement age.
Important limits
The result is a planning estimate, not financial, tax, or investment advice. It does not model every real-world detail, including Social Security, pensions, required minimum distributions, changing tax brackets, healthcare shocks, housing changes, estate goals, or spending that adapts after bad markets.